Cuts are DEEP for us WOFT applicants for FY2015! Check it out

[FLYC2A]

Its a big PDF file with the 2015 budget and actual numbers for pilots being trained.

 

Google this....... army budget aviation seats fy 2015

 

its the 5th link down PDF (OMA) Vol 1- US ARMY

 

READ pages 330-348

 

Check it out, let me know what you think

[akscott60]

I dont see those as huge. Army is shrinking (or at least talking about it a lot).

 

So there will be a few less students, cuts in instructors, contractors, and probably a few less flight hours.

 

The main cut is National Guard slots for flight school, based on what I am reading.

 

Wow, half the slots for fixed wing from FY13 to FY15.

Edited March 28, 2014 by akscott60

[FLYC2A]

From 880 something to 580 something right? Did you see that? li plus last year was 1050 something....so from over a 1000 to under 600 in 2 years

[skyreaper]

I havent looked this over yet, but let me ask this; Why would 153A be a critically manned MOS? Remember this past Nov. and Jan. USAREC messages? From what I'm seeing, the Army is well positioned (relatively) to continue asset development past 2030. Why would they be granting 100+ million $ contracts to no name aero-engineer companies for a new airframe concept?

 

I think the bottom line here (us pilots) is being held. There is force reduction, but I think as far as Army Aviation goes, this is being handeled by standard attrition. Wrong?

[Velocity173]

It's a shrinking force. I think those numbers match up with the loss of the 58s. We were putting 700 through FS prior 9-11 and with no 58s in the future, it's going to be somewhere below 700 per year.

 

When you look at the history of war (graphic below) with all the branches, there is a drawdown of personnel afterwards. Combine that with a fraction of the aircraft these days then what we had pre 1980s, and that's what you get. Decades ago we had more FW than any other branch. Not anymore. Less pilots with a growing population of people who want to be pilots and you have a low acceptance rate. Simple.

 

In a way the reduction is good because your unit won't be 200 % manned like we've had in recent years. You won't be sitting around competing with other WO1 to get flight time. Problem is, with the reduction in manning, you have a corresponding reduction in the FHP.

 

Between 2007-2010 they really beefed up their instructor population at Rucker. Anyone with common sense would know that those numbers wouldn't last long. Well a month ago S-3 laid off their UH-60 instructors. Not sure what they did with other airframes. You can't keep the optempo in TRADOC at wartime level if there's no need for it.

Edited March 28, 2014 by Velocity173

[Joe_P148]

The country is going on to 20 trillion in debt. We aren't fighting any wars and as stated previously the force is over strength. This is just common sense. I know it sucks for the WOFT applicants but that's just how it is. Sometimes it's all about timing.

[Dnr032]

There is a good overview and explanation of the impending cuts to Army Aviaiton in the Febuary 2014 issue of Rotor & Wing magazine. Here is a link to the digital version:

 

http://accessintelligence.imirus.com/Mpowered/book/vrw14/i3/p0

 

- Click "Issues" on the left

- Click "Feb 2014"

 

Page 42-44

 

The current number at Rucker for this FY is 899 students. Could even go lower in the future.

 

It also looks like it will be the training Army of the 90's...... " a 40% reduction in the sustainment and a 25% reduction in training across the Army. 10.7 hours per crew per month depending on the mission."

 

The reserves are cut down to 6 hours per crew per month- which is basic currency in the aircraft. Just like Bill Clinton days of the mid 90's. In my Guard unit during that time, if you were an experinced W-3 or W-4, even in a line unit positon, they made you FAC-2 to save the hours for the junior W-1s and 2's.

[TriViper]

As it relates to incoming WOFT applicants:

 

There's going to be some sort of budget cut, but we really don't know to what extent. These are all just proposals at this point. With a reduced force, the assumption is that there'll also be less desire for younger folks to join the military due to an improving economy (an article by Justine notes this -- it's posted somewhere). So less seats doesn't necessarily equate to more competition. As Skyreaper noted, there's a reason why the last several Boards have been short of 153A applications. The selection rate has continued to be 70-80% (at least for civilians). This last board included 13 selectees out of 16 (civilian), or 81%. And why has the age limit increased twice in the last few years? -- because they still need pilots. I realize this could change in the future, but the drawdown has been going on for a little while now and so far it's been no more difficult to obtain a seat.

[brackac]

I'm interested in seeing how this reflects on promotion numbers for W3 and W4.

[Lindsey]

The best way to beat the numbers is to just put in your packet, folks.

 

4 days and a wake up 'til WO1.

[brackac]

The best way to beat the numbers is to just put in your packet, folks.

 

4 days and a wake up 'til WO1.

 

 

Hey, I know someone in your class.

[Lindsey]

 

 

Hey, I know someone in your class.

 

Oh yeah? Who?

[TriViper]

A Lindsey sighting...what a pleasant surprise. A VR hall of famer

[brackac]

A Lindsey sighting...what a pleasant surprise. A VR hall of famer

 

Sitting in class, surfing the internet. Man, life must be good in WOCS. Back when I went through, we had to chisel and hammer our notes into stone tablets and our version of "media rights" was when they turned ESPN on the TV in the chow hall.

[Velocity173]

As it relates to incoming WOFT applicants:

 

There's going to be some sort of budget cut, but we really don't know to what extent. These are all just proposals at this point. With a reduced force, the assumption is that there'll also be less desire for younger folks to join the military due to an improving economy (an article by Justine notes this -- it's posted somewhere). So less seats doesn't necessarily equate to more competition. As Skyreaper noted, there's a reason why the last several Boards have been short of 153A applications. The selection rate has continued to be 70-80% (at least for civilians). This last board included 13 selectees out of 16 (civilian), or 81%. And why has the age limit increased twice in the last few years? -- because they still need pilots. I realize this could change in the future, but the drawdown has been going on for a little while now and so far it's been no more difficult to obtain a seat.

Sure if less people are applying obviously the percentage will be high. Even back in the 90s there were some high percentage boards because lack of applicants. I got picked up in 99 on an 80 % board. The numbers go up and down but largely in the last 10 yrs acceptance rates were high every board.

 

It's about the number of positions available and that isn't just a forecast, it's reality. The R&W article stated we hit a high of 1,250 students going through Rucker during GWOT. Now we have around 899 going through. Future proposal is 580 for a 2 yr defense budget that was already approved last month. With 898 aircraft being retired and the 58s going bye bye, these future student numbers make sense. It's not doom and gloom but it's not Army Aviation of the GWOT years. As said above, it's the Army of the 90s again and if you look at the budget since 2011, Congress is taking steps to get it back to those numbers.

 

For those applying for WOFT, as we always say, just put in your packet. Who cares about numbers? Just get the packet done and roll the dice. Got nothing to lose.

[Lastshot]

Sure if less people are applying obviously the percentage will be high. Even back in the 90s there were some high percentage boards because lack of applicants. I got picked up in 99 on an 80 % board. The numbers go up and down but largely in the last 10 yrs acceptance rates were high every board.

 

It's about the number of positions available and that isn't just a forecast, it's reality. The R&W article stated we hit a high of 1,250 students going through Rucker during GWOT. Now we have around 899 going through. Future proposal is 580 for a 2 yr defense budget that was already approved last month. With 898 aircraft being retired and the 58s going bye bye, these future student numbers make sense. It's not doom and gloom but it's not Army Aviation of the GWOT years. As said above, it's the Army of the 90s again and if you look at the budget since 2011, Congress is taking steps to get it back to those numbers.

 

For those applying for WOFT, as we always say, just put in your packet. Who cares about numbers? Just get the packet done and roll the dice. Got nothing to lose.

 

If approved, when is the 580 seats going to take effect? Wondering if the Guard/Reserve will take a bigger hit than AD...

[apacheguy]

I'm interested in seeing how this reflects on promotion numbers for W3 and W4.

Branch has continually stated that we're way overstrength on W2s. The W3 board is going to be a bloodbath for the next few years....keep your options open and finish your bachelors...

[akscott60]

Finish my degree and track safety are my two goals. I have 5 years or so to do that.

[Lindsey]

 

Sitting in class, surfing the internet. Man, life must be good in WOCS. Back when I went through, we had to chisel and hammer our notes into stone tablets and our version of "media rights" was when they turned ESPN on the TV in the chow hall.

 

Or we just have an awesome morale officer.

[brackac]

Branch has continually stated that we're way overstrength on W2s. The W3 board is going to be a bloodbath for the next few years....keep your options open and finish your bachelors...

 

Oh, trust me, I am already preparing my resume, even though I have checked every block as a W2. PIC/AMC/WOAC/Tracked and last OER was #1 out of 30. Even with that, I am seriously nervous about this promotion board. If last year was an indicator, it's going to be in the high 50%. Moving over to FW is the big unknown in regards to where I sit.

[Joe_P148]

Well... I think you'll be good. Untracked no Woac and I still got picked up on a high 50 board.

[brackac]

Well... I think you'll be good. Untracked no Woac and I still got picked up on a high 50 board.

I haven't finished my bachelors. A 4 year degree seems to be the thing untracked promotee's have in common.

[akscott60]

 

Oh, trust me, I am already preparing my resume, even though I have checked every block as a W2. PIC/AMC/WOAC/Tracked and last OER was #1 out of 30. Even with that, I am seriously nervous about this promotion board. If last year was an indicator, it's going to be in the high 50%. Moving over to FW is the big unknown in regards to where I sit.

 

That alone should make you get CW3 no issue. You have checked every box you could on the Army side.

[brackac]

 

That alone should make you get CW3 no issue. You have checked every box you could on the Army side.

I was in the military back in 95, and we are going right back to that type of drawdown and cut throat environment.Trust me, nothing is that easy.

[akscott60]

Think it will get that bad?

 

Yikes