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Gulf of Mexico opening back up?


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#1 takefootoff

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Posted 09 November 2016 - 06:59

How soon, if at all...granted a certain campaign promise of "energy independence" is kept.



#2 helonorth

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Posted 13 November 2016 - 17:51

You can't make companies drill for oil. This whole thing is dependent on price. Drilling rigs stacked all over the world.



#3 Wally

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Posted 13 November 2016 - 18:40

$60 a barrel.

Just a pilot (retired, so I have a LOT of time)...


#4 Azhigher

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Posted 13 November 2016 - 19:56

PHI recently said they expect the price of oil to stay about where it is for a while. Not counting on it bouncing back by 2020 as they previously put out. Take that for what you will.



#5 Fred0311

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Posted 04 February 2017 - 19:23

Anyone else noticing drilling rigs coming out of retirement?
  • takefootoff likes this

#6 takefootoff

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Posted 05 February 2017 - 12:41

Anyone else noticing drilling rigs coming out of retirement?

 

http://www.theadvoca...995f1679c1.html



#7 helonorth

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Posted 05 February 2017 - 23:26

There is one thing, and one thing only, that will increase drilling: the price of oil. 



#8 helonorth

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Posted 05 February 2017 - 23:30

It's not exactly something you would ever "notice". This is for the GOM as February 3. 

 

US Gulf of Mexico 

 

This Week Last Week Last Month Last Year 

 

Total Supply 103 104 105 122

 

Marketed Supply 48 49 49 72 

 

Total Supply 103 104 105 122

 

Marketed Utilization (%) 70.8% 73.5% 75.5% 68.1%


Edited by helonorth, 05 February 2017 - 23:36.


#9 helonorth

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Posted 08 February 2017 - 12:44

 

The Advocate knows about as much as PHI does as far as what's going to happen in the GOM: nothing.



#10 r22butters

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Posted 08 February 2017 - 13:29

Oil is the past, tear 'em all down and put up a wind farm!
The only dream I have left is to live long enough to see the pilot shortage. Its been about fourteen years since they first told me it was coming, so,...

Aaaaaaaany day now! :D

#11 helonorth

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Posted 17 February 2017 - 00:06

The 2010 Obama administration moratorium stopped the issuing of new drilling leases (I believe existing drilling was allowed to continue, I could be wrong) in the GOM for 6 months after the Deep Water Horizon.

 

The eastern GOM has never really been on the table but the rest of it has been open to drilling since Dec. 2010. The lease sales have drawn little interest since the price collapse two years ago. Oil companies with unexplored leased blocks  have scaled back significantly on new drilling due to low prices.

 

Other than for the 6 month period (and the few months it took to meet new compliance with spill containment) the western GOM has never been closed to drilling. There is nothing to "open back up".

 

The before and after for the rest of the country:

 

before mor.jpg

after mor.jpg


Edited by helonorth, 17 February 2017 - 00:25.


#12 takefootoff

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Posted 17 February 2017 - 16:52

Ok ok....lemmie re-phrase "opening back up for business and/or increased production or whatever."

 

The intent of the thread was to ask if pilots could expect jobs to open up in the GOM



#13 helonorth

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Posted 17 February 2017 - 23:03

Ok ok....lemmie re-phrase "opening back up for business and/or increased production or whatever."

 

The intent of the thread was to ask if pilots could expect jobs to open up in the GOM

I know what you asked and I know what you meant. What I'm trying to tell is your question requires a crystal ball.



#14 Wally

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Posted 18 February 2017 - 09:27

The GoM will never be what it was again, if it ever was.

 

I'm reading that fracking tech is developing and driving the break even price of a barrel downwards, which will compete with conventional for a long time, I think. Perhaps offshore will become less expensive as well? I wouldn't look for an expansion soon, or in the next couple years.


Just a pilot (retired, so I have a LOT of time)...


#15 METT-TC

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Posted 07 March 2017 - 18:15

I talked to PHI's GOM Ops Manager today at Heli-Expo (and he also briefed a group of us at Heli-Success two days ago) and he stated-we also queried him on it just to confirm-they haven't hired any new pilots in his org for two years. TWO years. If some of what the current Administration wants comes into actual play, he expects they will see an uptick, but he doesn't expect it to spool for 12-18 months.

 

For GOM to quit being depressed, he stated that economically, oil needs to sustain above $70 a barrel-sooo.

 

That is just one operator, but they are a major one.



#16 chris pochari

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Posted 30 May 2017 - 01:47

Still need helos to get the wind turbines  ;)



#17 rotornut67

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Posted 31 May 2017 - 21:22

    I agree with Wally that the GOM won't ever be what it was a few years ago.  When I left almost a year ago a lot of the operating companies were really downsizing.  I flew on a couple of different contracts that once had 2 birds flying the loop and doing their crew changes, but had cut back to one bird.  It was not uncommon to fly 7 or 8 hours a day, and on occasion we would not be able to get everything done because I would time out.  The company was basically still flying the same amount of hours but with one less pilot to pay. 

    I still stay in touch with several of the guys that I flew with, and they say they are still flying their butts off and that the company is still hiring pretty steady due to normal pilot turnover.  I wouldn't look for a noticeable increase in new drilling until crude stays steady at around $70 a barrel for a while. But that's just my opinion.






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