thrilsekr Posted April 1, 2009 Report Share Posted April 1, 2009 What do you folks think? Is there going to be even fewer jobs for civilian pilots once military pilots start returning from duty in the middle east? Do you expect to see an influx of pilots? Or does Obama's plan have no effect on the current job market, as the pilots are on active duty, so they will just get restationed? Just thinking about the relatively near future (and maybe a bit out there too) job market. Seeing how many pilots are looking for jobs currently, are things just going to get worse? Will the "Vietnam era pilots retiring" sales pitch become even more questionable due to the "War on Terror" pilots returning home? On a personal note: Just making my way through training can be daunting enough the way it is, without having to worry about whether or not I will soon have less of a chance at a job once I am job market ready. Not considering giving up, just planning. Examining options. Listening to opinions. I know the "where's my job" is a common thread, but I do not think we have touched this concern (maybe there is no concern?). Thanks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rick1128 Posted April 1, 2009 Report Share Posted April 1, 2009 First of all, the military pilots currently overseas work on a rotation, so they are restationed stateside on a regular basis. Second, the military is not training pilots in the numbers that they did during Viet Nam so there will be fewer to flood the civilian market like after the Viet Nam war. I do not see a large RIF happening as the current military forces are much smaller. Plus I do not foresee the current conflict ending anytime soon. Look at what is happening. The military is using civilian contractors to operate civil helicopters to support operations in Iraq and Afghanistan. Operations that are normally conducted by military forces. Further more, the military is requiring that those completing flight training remain in the military for longer periods of time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gomer Pylot Posted April 1, 2009 Report Share Posted April 1, 2009 Unfortunately, the war isn't ending, the focus is just moving a few thousand miles, from Iraq to Afghanistan and vicinity. Pilots will quit, but not in huge number, I don't think. I do hope that the current administration stops the completely stupid practice of trying to contract everything to civilian companies, for the sole purpose of enriching those companies and their owners, who have made substantial political contributions. That is nothing but legalized (perhaps) bribery, and results in much greater danger to the troops and everyone else. Stopping that would probably result in more military aviation jobs, and a few more civilian jobs available here. I doubt the difference would be great in any case, though. The military situation has always been a bogus argument, and I would recommend ignoring it entirely. Vietnam was a complete anomaly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darren Hughes Posted April 1, 2009 Report Share Posted April 1, 2009 From what I've seen at the minute, its mainly only low time pilots that are having real difficulty getting work. It has always been this way, although not quite as bad as it is right now. The higher time more experienced pilots are still in good enough demand. So if you look at how the flight schools are going to be doing you should get a feel for the demand for the low-timers. I don't think it will be quite as bad as you might think. Although I'm not an expert on military pilots, I suspect there will be plenty coming out with less than that magic 1000 hours. If that is the case you will have plenty looking to do some CFI training, and that will be good for flight schools, and current CFI's. I'm sure there will be plenty of pilots who enjoy the military life and will want to remain in, even during peace time. So that will might take from the large influx in a big way right there. On top of all that, you'll have the non pilot, military guys that were on the ground up to this point who were thinking to themselves, "I wanna fly one of those", and they'll be wanting to use their GI bill for flight training. That will be good for the 141 schools, and the current students who will soon be instructors. From listening to all the so called "experts" on shows like 60 minutes, I suspect the world economies should be making a little bounce back towards the middle of next year. And with that you can expect to see some of the "private" fly for fun get back to their hobbies which will be good for most schools. But some might say I'm being a little too optimistic there, it's hard to know. This large influx will only happen if Iraq and Afghanistan end around the same time, and the Russians will tell you, that Afghanistan will probably go on for a hell of a lot longer than Iraq. On top of that, the US military will still probably have a decent size military presence, with large bases in both countries for decades to come. Just look at Germany, Japan and South Korea. So I wouldn't be too worried about the civilian market of the future. As much as I think Obama might be the right man for the job, I don't think he will be able to pull out quite as soon as he promised in the campaign. But if he does, also remember that during peace time, most economies normally do quite well, which will lead to plenty of employment and prosperity. I wouldn't expect a large influx, but more of a trickle. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darkhorse Posted April 1, 2009 Report Share Posted April 1, 2009 Just a side note, most pilots leaving the military will have more than 1500 hours. Infact most should have 2k+. Side note #2, I dont think Obama has kept a campaign promise yet and I don't think the economy outlook is optomistic at all. Maybe for a short span with all the money flooding the economy but it will shrivel quickly. Thats my opinion, put it in the round file. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darren Hughes Posted April 1, 2009 Report Share Posted April 1, 2009 Just a side note, most pilots leaving the military will have more than 1500 hours. Infact most should have 2k+. Side note #2, I dont think Obama has kept a campaign promise yet and I don't think the economy outlook is optomistic at all. Maybe for a short span with all the money flooding the economy but it will shrivel quickly. Thats my opinion, put it in the round file. Lovin' the optimism Darkhorse!! Ok so most of them will have 1500+, And that's where the deficiency of experienced pilots start, and gets worse from there. I still reckon it won't be a large influx so it should just help to alleviate the shortage rather than flood the market. But that's me again with my eternal optimism!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darkhorse Posted April 1, 2009 Report Share Posted April 1, 2009 Sorry Darren didnt mean to be so negative, its just been one of those days. Hopefully your optomism will carry us both . I agree there will not be nearly the flood into the market there was during Vietnam. Theres not nearly the pilots and the war wont end nearly as quick. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin DBC Posted April 1, 2009 Report Share Posted April 1, 2009 A couple things to consider on this topic. 1) Not every pilot that comes back from deployment is going to get out of the military. Pilots have a fairly high retention rate. Do you really think many are wanting to drop the job security, retirement, medical care, etc etc etc in the military to go risk it in the civilian sector? 2) Even the pilots who do get out aren't necesarily going to be pilots on the outside. The comissioned officers have degrees and can make far more money pursuing a management position somewhere. Even most of the warrants either have college under their belts before they come in or get a degree while in the service. I'm in the National Guard so pretty much everyone has a civilian job and I only know of a few guys who fly on the outside. 2 who fly for LASD, 1 who works in the Gulf, 1 flies for Customs, and 1 is a fixed wing CFI. J- Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Linc Posted April 2, 2009 Report Share Posted April 2, 2009 I have to echo Gomer. Vietnam was an incredible build-up of aviation power. With an aggressive turnover for the duration and a huge drawdown when all was said and done. It wasn't quite as much of a glut as the post WWII influx of fixed-wing pilots from the Army Air Forces when the war was over. Justin is right, not every pilot who comes home is disillusioned and gets out. Heck, some of us keep going back for more punishment! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrjibbs Posted April 3, 2009 Report Share Posted April 3, 2009 well, im a CFII with over 400 and cant get a job to save my life and cant survive unemployed much longer, so im working on my warrant officer packet now so im going in to fly. Cant beat the steady pay, benefits and student loan repayment plan when you get out! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin DBC Posted April 4, 2009 Report Share Posted April 4, 2009 well, im a CFII with over 400 and cant get a job to save my life and cant survive unemployed much longer, so im working on my warrant officer packet now so im going in to fly. Cant beat the steady pay, benefits and student loan repayment plan when you get out! I might be going the same route. One of my pilots keeps pressing me. I guess it is pretty retarded to do it the hard way when I'm already a crewchief and a rated helicopter pilot... I don't think they're going to kick back my packet. I was pretty intent on staying on the crew side in the military, but the economy has me thinking twice about that one. J- Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
permison Posted April 8, 2009 Report Share Posted April 8, 2009 I have to echo Gomer. Vietnam was an incredible build-up of aviation power. With an aggressive turnover for the duration and a huge drawdown when all was said and done. It wasn't quite as much of a glut as the post WWII influx of fixed-wing pilots from the Army Air Forces when the war was over. Justin is right, not every pilot who comes home is disillusioned and gets out. Heck, some of us keep going back for more punishment! Never trust a scout....they are all a little crazy to begin with. All Aviators in the Army get a psychological review the ones who fail wind up as scouts Scouts out baby! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
palmfish Posted April 9, 2009 Report Share Posted April 9, 2009 the ones who fail wind up as scouts And of those, the bottom 10% go to the Cav. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Linc Posted April 12, 2009 Report Share Posted April 12, 2009 I'll take crazy. God doesn't make cajones large enough for anyone to do what we do by choice, so he sprinkles us all with a little touch of insanity to balance it out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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