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m4shooter

Has Anyone Analyzed Selection Trends?

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While I was waiting for the January board results to come out, I was analyzing old MILPER messages for possible trends I could identify from month to month.

 

The January board results looked very similar to what I anticipated they would. I looked at rank vs overall number of selections vs number of FQ-NS, NC-NS.

 

Has anyone else done this? If so what did you find?

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I must confess I've done this.. but I would say its a complete waste of time. The selection is going to depend too much on individual qualifications, LORs, how well their resume is written, etc. I know it sounds like I'm reading off some USAREC FAQ or something but it just depends on the overall individual. I've seen NCOs who are crew members, high PT scores, nice SIFT scores, get passed up on their first time or even become NC-NS, while E-4s and below with lower scores get selected. Without a look into their whole packet, you'll never know why. I think that's the reason people on here encourage everyone even if the appear to have a "weakness" in their packet. Take the good ol' PT score for example, I know someone who just got picked up with a 250 first try, and I know someone who got passed up on their first look with a 300.. I don't know, maybe the board member thinks you look stupid in your DA photo, could be anything..

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I didn't look at results by rank as I didn't see that as an important factor... just by the numbers over the past year:

 

Jan 16 - 58.54%

Mar 16 - 71.21%

May 16 - 61.84%

Jul 16 - 46.08%

Nov 16 - 50%

Jan 17 - 62.89%

 

Hoping for the best in March! Good luck to everyone.

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It will be interesting to see if/how this changes if our country really ends up ramping up military numbers.

Mike

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If you REALLY want to get balls deep in the analysis, you have to include two boards at a time, and look at how many names got picked up on their SECOND look. A board may be 50%, but how many of those people are getting picked up on the 2nd board? how many of that 50% that got selected were ON their second board?

 

Looking at one milper message at a time doesnt tell the whole story.

 

Ill admit, I did this for the entire month I waited on my board. It is an exercise in futility, but I had quite the excel spreadsheet going. When I factored in people being picked up on their second board, the selection rate varied from 50-80%.

 

There is only one percentage that matters.

 

100% of people who don't turn in a packet, don't get accepted.

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I didn't look at results by rank as I didn't see that as an important factor... just by the numbers over the past year:

 

Jan 16 - 58.54%

Mar 16 - 71.21%

May 16 - 61.84%

Jul 16 - 46.08%

Nov 16 - 50%

Jan 17 - 62.89%

 

Hoping for the best in March! Good luck to everyone.

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For those Officers interested in stats, since the March 2016 board every Officer that has applied has been accepted. This could be the reason as to why they are now boarding all Officers in the March board as to not take a slot away from other soldiers if they are going to be automatically accepted if qualified. In my opinion not accepting a fully qualified Officer would undermine the whole Officer corps especially if they are applying for a position that is a lower rank/grade.

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