Industry outlook for the next year

[Darkhorse]

I'm curious especially from those whom work in the gulf what your outlook is over the next year. When I decided to start this journey I thought chances of employment would be good with a bunch of Vietnam era pilots retiring over the next few years (coupled with how many have already retired). Seeing alot of articles of companies like PHI and Airlog hurting for pilots and lower minimums that they never had to consider doing before.

 

I assume that the economy slow down does not effect GOM contracts nearly as much as other area's of the economy because obviously oil is the life blood. How about the collapse of Silver State? Silver State released a tide of CFI's into the market which I'm sure will have an impact but I do not know how much. Aviation is a small community but I'm used to the Military side, I don't know how to gauge the civilian side. These are a few examples, please add your own to provide a general description of the next years outlook.

 

Any thoughts, impressions or crystal ball rubbing is appreciated.

[Chaz]

yea i was wanting to ask that one too. I hope to start training in a couple more months...

[Goldy]

This was a main topic at HAI- Houston this year. Many of the conferences dealt with this, all were extremely optimistic. Never before can anyone remember this level of backlog with helicopter manufacturers.

 

As far as SSH, here's a bit of math for ya. Ratio of students to CFI's- 30 to 1. So, half the students drop out, now I have 15 students looking for instruction. Most schools have a 7 or 8 to 1 student to CFI ratio. So assuming that half the students can't afford further instruction, I now need 1 more CFI (a total of 2) to handle those 15 students....I know the local SSH school had a 17 to 1 ratio and I have heard of schools that were 40 to 1. just my math of course.

 

And of course, SSH CFI's are just that..guys and gals trying to build time to move on, leaving holes to fill behind.

 

You will have to see from the GOM guys what their feelings are, all I can tell you is HAI was booming with deals.

 

Goldy

[BOATFIXERGUY]

This was a main topic at HAI- Houston this year. Many of the conferences dealt with this, all were extremely optimistic. Never before can anyone remember this level of backlog with helicopter manufacturers.

 

Goldy

 

That's what I was thinking too. I heard the manufactures have over $30 billion in orders. A search of jobs for pilots shows that there's a huge shortage in 1000 - 2500 hour+ required positions, especially in EMS. The oil industry is going crazy buying equipment, the new SAR industry taking off, etc.

 

I think our industry is fine. If I was an airbus or boeing pilot I'd be very worried though!

[spw1177]

It will be interesting to see what the collapse of SSH has on the supply of helicopter pilots. At least in the short term the collapse of SSH and the current financial climate will limit the number of new pilots over the next few years. Lenders seem to be decreasing the number of flight training loans that have fed the flight training industry over the last few years.

 

Many of the unfinished SSH students will probably never finish. It is sad, but true. They will spend the next few months/years trying to get their money back. And when all is said and done they will have either lost the taste for it or will not be able to afford to continue on.

 

I agree with everyone else up to this point though. If you can afford to get in and afford to 'pay your dues', the future of the helicopter industry looks pretty good. Even still, you won't get rich doing this job, but it beats the hell out of 'flying a desk'.

[JDHelicopterPilot]

I tend to agree. Sadly I think many students of SSH will not continue. It is a sad prospect to be in their shoes and I feel for them.

 

I think as a result of all the instructors let go from SSH it will make the instructor market harder to get into. Other than that the rest of the industry seems to be doing well. As said there is a large back order of aircraft and there will need to be pilots to fly them.

 

EMS has been forced to lower the hiring minimums. I have seen minimums now as low as 1,500 total time. That is half of what it used to be just a few years back. The EMS industry is growing and there is a lack of pilots. A big problem they are facing is the salary levels. This is getting better but there is still more room to grow.

 

If you get your foot in the door with an instructor position. The rest will fall into place later on.

[Gomer Pylot]

I'm not confident in predicting the outlook for next month, nevermind next year. It will be what it will be. I assume the pay will increase, but I doubt it will keep pace with inflation, which I believe will be very, very high. Given the price of crude oil, the oil companies should keep exploring, but I've seen them cap wells and just refuse to produce them, waiting for higher prices, sometimes for many years. My only prediction is that the demand for pilots will be higher, lower, or the same.

[Helo-Pilot]

The SSH collapse affected more than just those who were enrolled.

 

I was just about to start working as a new CFI when they shut the doors. When I got home from the Robinson course, there was a line of SSH instructors and students out the door of my potential employeers office. I really can't blame him though. Who would you want to hire? A new CFI with no experience, or a CFI that has already given 2-300 hours of instruction?

 

O well. I just have to find another direction to go.

[rrobinson]

I fell terrible for all the people that got screwed by Silver State and hope all find jobs ,but I am looking to start this career as well and have all the same questions as the first guy on this page. Its bad enough that these people paid in advance and got taken advantage. I ques my question is this are there any schools out there that truly grantee a job as a cfi after you are done with the school. I have the money to pay for this and my wife and I do not have any kids and she can get a job as a traveling nurse and support us for the next few years. I know I would be in a much better position than most starting this career,but I would hate to blow all this money to find out that I can not get a cfi job or worse off cost me my marriage. What are the chances of getting a CFI job and working for free or minimum wage just to get your hours or are there people at these school all ready doing this? If anyone could help out with any suggestion I would appreciate it.

 

Thanks,

Ryan

[choppedair]

I fell terrible for all the people that got screwed by Silver State and hope all find jobs ,but I am looking to start this career as well and have all the same questions as the first guy on this page. Its bad enough that these people paid in advance and got taken advantage. I ques my question is this are there any schools out there that truly grantee a job as a cfi after you are done with the school. I have the money to pay for this and my wife and I do not have any kids and she can get a job as a traveling nurse and support us for the next few years. I know I would be in a much better position than most starting this career,but I would hate to blow all this money to find out that I can not get a cfi job or worse off cost me my marriage. What are the chances of getting a CFI job and working for free or minimum wage just to get your hours or are there people at these school all ready doing this? If anyone could help out with any suggestion I would appreciate it.

 

Thanks,

Ryan

 

Work for free or minimum wage? That is the kind of attitude that results in low paying jobs.

All I have to say is, if you want to do it, do it. If you work hard and you're motivated, you will make it work.

No one guarantees a cfi job after training, because not everyone is the same. Who wants to guarantee a job and have to hire an idiot when he finishes his training?

Like I said, if you work and study hard and make an effort you will get a job!